Forex – Last week saw the euro regain some ground after a dip to 1.1669, closing the session around 1.1725. The pound remained range‑bound near 1.2800 as traders digested mixed UK economic data. The yen stayed modestly weaker, trading near 152.30 per USD, reflecting continued risk‑off sentiment after geopolitical headlines.
Crypto – Bitcoin (BTC/USD) rallied 4% to around $29,800, buoyed by renewed institutional buying and a softer US dollar. Ethereum (ETH/USD) followed with a 5% gain, breaking the $1,870 resistance. Altcoin activity was muted, with most midsized coins staying within tight ranges.
Commodities – Gold (XAU/USD) slipped back toward $1,975 an ounce after hovering above $2,000 earlier in the week. Crude oil prices rose modestly, with Brent hovering near $84.30 as OPEC+ production decisions remained in focus.
| Date (GMT) | Event | Expected Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Tue 08:30 | Eurozone CPI (Eurostat) – consensus 2.2% YoY | Higher inflation could support the EUR if data exceeds expectations. |
| Wed 12:30 | US Non‑Farm Payrolls – consensus +210k | A strong jobs report may lift the USD, pressuring EUR/USD and GBP/USD. |
| Thu 09:00 | UK Retail Sales – consensus -0.3% MoM | A weaker retail figure could keep GBP under pressure. |
| Fri 01:30 | US Core PCE – consensus 0.3% MoM | The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge; a surprise could shift market bias. |
| Fri 14:00 | China Manufacturing PMI – consensus 50.5 | Better‑than‑expected PMI could lift risk appetite and support commodities. |
In addition, the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting minutes are expected later in the week, providing clues on future rate path and influencing the USD’s trajectory.
The euro is poised near 1.1720–1.1760. If the Eurozone CPI prints above the 2.2% consensus, we could see a breakout toward 1.1800. Conversely, a disappointing US jobs report could keep the pair in a 1.1650–1.1720 range. Traders should watch the 1.1700 psychological level and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent down‑move.
The pound is trading in a tight 1.2790–1.2850 band. UK retail sales remain the key driver; a miss could push GBP down to 1.2700, while a beat might test 1.2900. The 200‑day moving average at 1.2825 offers dynamic support.
The yen remains on the defensive at 152.20–152.80. Any escalation in geopolitical risk (e.g., Middle‑East tensions) could see a risk‑off rally to 151.00. The 50‑day SMA at 152.40 is a critical pivot; a break below may open the path toward 150.00.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD) – Current support sits at $28,800, with the next major resistance at $30,500. A break above $30,500 could trigger a run toward the $32,000‑$33,000 zone, especially if the Fed minutes signal a more dovish stance.
Ethereum (ETH/USD) – ETH finds support near $1,850 and faces resistance at $1,910. A clean move above $1,910 would open the path to $2,000, aligning with the broader risk‑on narrative.
Technical indicators show bullish momentum: the 14‑period RSI for BTC is at 62, and the MACD histogram turned positive on the daily chart. Traders should keep an eye on the $29,000 round‑number for BTC, as it often acts as a psychological barrier.
This week’s market direction hinges on a handful of macro data points. Forex traders should focus on the EUR/USD and GBP/USD pairings around the key CPI and retail figures, while crypto traders will find the BTC/USD and ETH/USD levels sensitive to US monetary policy cues. For those managing a Global4EX funded account, the blend of technical analysis and disciplined risk management—core principles of the Global4EX Challenge and 1‑Phase evaluations—remains essential. Whether you’re navigating a prop‑firm evaluation or a personal portfolio, staying attuned to the economic calendar and the technical thresholds outlined above will give you the edge in a volatile week ahead.
Published by the Global4EX Team. Learn more at global4ex.com
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