Introduction

Welcome to the Weekly Market Kickoff – your Monday briefing that combines the latest technical analysis with macro‑economic context. We’ll review what moved the markets last week across forex, cryptocurrencies, and commodities, flag the data releases that could shift sentiment this week, and provide actionable outlooks for the major pairs EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY as well as key crypto levels for BTC/USD and ETH/USD. Whether you trade a retail account or a Global4EX Challenge funded account, the insights below will help you shape a disciplined trading strategy and improve risk management.

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1. What Happened Last Week

Forex

• EUR/USD slipped back to the 1.1720‑1.1740 range after the Eurozone CPI print showed a modest 2.5% YoY rise – a touch below the consensus of 2.6%. The pair found support around the 1.1720 psychological level, which also aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the March high.
• GBP/USD rallied to 1.2855, buoyed by stronger‑than‑expected UK services PMI (55.2 vs. 53.8 forecast). The pound also benefitted from a narrowing yield differential as U.K. gilt yields fell 6bps.
• USD/JPY stayed range‑bound between 149.70 and 150.30, reflecting a tug‑of‑war between the Fed’s hawkish tone and Japan’s continued ultra‑low‑rate stance. The 150.00 level acted as a pivot point, with the 200‑day moving average (≈149.90) providing additional support.

Commodities

• Gold (XAU/USD) retreated from the $2,070 peak, settling around $2,030 after the U.S. Treasury released a higher‑than‑expected budget deficit figure. The 2,040 level now serves as a strong resistance, while the 1,990 support line holds firm.
• Crude Oil (WTI) closed the week at $81.20, a modest gain driven by OPEC’s reaffirmed production cuts and easing geopolitical tension after the U.S.–Iran cease‑fire talks.

Crypto

• Bitcoin (BTC/USD) posted a 7% weekly gain, the best performance since October 2025, after the cease‑fire news removed the risk‑off bias that had been pressuring the digital asset. BTC tested the $30,200 resistance before pulling back to the $29,800‑$30,000 swing range.
• Ethereum (ETH/USD) mirrored BTC’s rally, climbing 6% and finding resistance near $1,950. The 1,880‑1,900 zone now acts as a key support‑resistance corridor.

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2. Key Events & Data Releases This Week

Traders should keep an eye on the Economic Calendar (e.g., TradingEconomics, Bloomberg) for real‑time updates. The interplay between these releases and technical levels will dictate short‑term price action.

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3. Major Currency Pair Outlook

EUR/USD

• Current price: 1.1728
• Key technical levels:
  • Resistance: 1.1760 (previous weekly high) and 1.1800 (round number)
  • Support: 1.1720 (38.2% Fib) and 1.1685 (50% Fib)
• Bias: Short‑term bullish if the Eurozone CPI comes in softer and the pair breaks above 1.1760. A breach of 1.1685 would open the pathway to the 1.1640 zone.
• Trading idea: Consider a buy‑on‑break of 1.1760 with a stop just below 1.1720. Target the 1.1800‑1.1820 range.

GBP/USD

• Current price: 1.2848
• Key technical levels:
  • Resistance: 1.2875 (psychological) and 1.2920 (previous high)
  • Support: 1.2800 (major round number) and 1.2750 (50% Fib from March low)
• Bias: Bullish – the UK services PMI and potential CPI softness keep the pound in an uptrend. A retest of 1.2800 could provide a clean entry.
• Trading idea: Enter a long near 1.2805 with a stop at 1.2760. Aim for the 1.2875‑1.2920 zone.

USD/JPY

• Current price: 149.95
• Key technical levels:
  • Resistance: 150.00 (pivot) and 151.00 (psychological)
  • Support: 149.70 (200‑day MA) and 148.80 (previous swing low)
• Bias: Neutral‑to‑slightly bullish for the yen. The pair is likely to oscillate around the 150.00 pivot unless the Fed signals a more aggressive tightening.
• Trading idea: Use a range‑bound strategy: buy near 149.70, sell near 150.20, with stops just outside the range.

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4. Crypto Levels to Watch

Both BTC and ETH respect the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement from their recent rally. A break above the resistance zones could trigger a short‑term breakout, while a slip below support may see a corrective dip toward the 0.786 Fib levels ($29,400 for BTC, $1,820 for ETH).

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5. Commodity Snapshot

• Gold (XAU/USD): Holding above $2,030; watch the 2,040 resistance. A move below $1,990 could open a 1,950‑1,940 correction.
• Crude Oil (WTI): Near $81.20; the 82.00 level is the next hurdle, while 78.50 acts as a safety net.

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6. Trading Strategy & Risk Management Tips

1. Align technical entry points with macro events. For example, place a long EUR/USD order just above 1.1760 before the Eurozone CPI release. This reduces the risk of getting caught by a surprise data point.
2. Use position sizing based on volatility. The average true range (ATR) for EUR/USD is ~0.0015; a 1% account risk translates to ~66 pips per trade.
3. Set stop‑losses at logical technical levels (e.g., below 1.1720 for EUR/USD) rather than arbitrary percentages.
4. Consider the funded‑account context. If you’re trading a Global4EX Challenge or a 1‑Phase evaluation, keep the drawdown limit (often 5%‑10%) in mind. A disciplined approach that respects the evaluation’s risk parameters can be the difference between passing and failing.
5. Diversify across assets. Pair a forex trade with a crypto position that has low correlation to the USD to smooth equity curve volatility.

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7. Closing Thoughts

The market landscape this week is shaped by a blend of technical analysis and high‑impact economic releases. Traders who respect both the chart patterns and the data calendar will be best positioned to capture the upside while protecting capital. Keep your risk management tight, especially if you’re operating under a Global4EX funded account or an HFT Challenge evaluation where drawdown limits are unforgiving.

Stay alert, trade responsibly, and may the charts be in your favor.

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Published by the Global4EX Team. Learn more at global4ex.com