Enter your win rate, reward-to-risk ratio (reward = risk × ratio), and risk per trade as a percent of account. We estimate risk of ruin, per-trade expected value, and profit factor using the model specified on this page.
Risk of ruin is the probability of losing enough of your capital that you cannot continue trading at your planned size—often modeled as hitting a 100% drawdown on the stake you consider at risk. It depends on edge per trade, bet size, and assumptions about independence of outcomes.
Higher win rate and better reward-to-risk (for the same risk per trade) generally improve expected value and can lower ruin probability. Poor payoff ratios or low win rates can still produce negative expectancy, which pushes ruin toward certainty in simplified models.
No. It uses a compact formula and fixed inputs; real markets have streaks, changing volatility, slippage, and strategy drift. Treat the output as educational, not a precise forecast.
We express average win as risk percent times your R:R and average loss as risk per trade %. Expected value is the probability-weighted average of those outcomes per trade, shown as a percentage of the account.
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